I'm a modeler, a scientist, a guitar player, a computer enthusiast, a cyclist, a runner, a Colombian, a vegan, a human.
If you are any of these, then we already have something in common.
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, my research has focused on using models to understand the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. For instance, we used a detailed large-scale agent-based model to contribute to an ensemble of models used to understand the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. This model was based on the FRED platform, and we also used it to contribute to the CDC forecasting challenge. Recently, I have also used this model to evaluate the impact of school reopening in the state of Indiana and in Bogotá, Colombia.
I am interested in using computational models to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases. In particular, vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungnya, and Zika. Previous projects include a model of the transmission of chikungunya virus in Colombia to explore mitigation strategies —read more. I am actively working on the development of DengueSim; a simulator of dengue virus transmission in Iquitos, Peru —read more.
I research the impact of the introduction of new vaccines in populations. The main reason of this interest comes from the results of the first dengue vaccine. Understanding its potential impact in affected populations has been challenging due to the negative effects in naive individuals. I have used agent-based models to estimate the benefits of this vaccine in various populations —read more. I used this model to estimate the economic and public health impact of dengue vacination of individuals with confirmed past exposure to dengue virus —read more. I created a web-app to estimate these benefits. Similarly, I used this model to estimate the impact of pre-vaccination screening with subsequent vaccination in Puerto Rico, which is currently available as a pre-print.
Unmeasured heterogeneities affect estimates of vaccine efficacy which complicates the interpretation of vaccine efficacy estimates. I use computational models to design virtual trials of dengue vaccines and to identify and quantify possible sources of bias. I have used this model to quantify the effect of heterogeneous exposure in vaccine efficacy estimates from phase-III trials —read more. I am also interested in using these models to optimize future clinical trials.